2025 Battlespace & Barrel Flow Report
Extensive, detail analysis of crude, refined product, and LNG market impacts
of how a Gulf oil and gas disruption would affect
military, policy, and market responses
The Rapidan Battlespace & Barrel Flow Report is a multi-client study that will update our 2019 Battlespace and Barrel Flow analysis of oil and LNG market impacts of conflict with Iran in the Arabian Gulf. Study participants will receive a comprehensive slide presentation that includes narrative findings and data visualizations (# of slides), and an webinar exclusive for study participants. Options for customized analysis are available.
AUTHORS
Rapidan Founder Bob McNally, who has over 25 years of government and market experience as an international energy consultant, senior White House policy official, and hedge fund strategist.
Rapidan CEO Scott Modell, a highly decorated Central Intelligence Agency officer, senior advisor to U.S. Special Operations Command, and a leading expert on Iran and the broader Middle East.
Rapidan Director of Geopolitical Risk Fernando Ferreira, whose experience includes working with the Energy and National Security Program in Washington, focusing on oil markets and geopolitics.
A senior retired Navy officer and subject matter expert.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Terrain: Gulf flows, offsets, and workarounds
Policy responses to a disruption: What tools do officials have and how would they be used
Why a Gulf disruption might last longer than conventional wisdom assumes
Scenarios
7 Day Gulf Disruption Scenario
30 Day Gulf Disruption Scenario
Wild card: Abqaiq processing plant rendered unusable for 6 months
Appendix: Previous Disruptions, Disruption Risks, and Oil Price Impacts