RAPIDAN ENERGY POLICY SERVICE CONTENT October 2024 241024_80_ odds Gulf of Mexico (GoM) oil production avoids disruption following court-granted extension241023_Monitoring Rio Grande LNG’s (RGLNG) next steps as it files for a rehearing before the DC Circuit Court of Appeals241022_Another likely judicial blow to the US regulatory state – Supreme Court likely (70_ odds) to make it easier for challenges to EPA regulations to be heard in oil and gas industry-sympathetic regional courts241021_GOS Weekly Calendar241018_New French center-right government will oppose the EU’s 2035 ICE ban, cut domestic EV subsidies and other green spending, and push to classify nuclear power as a renewable fuel241018_EPS Weekly Bullets241017_New poll reveals unpopularity of Canada's 2035 ZEV mandate, casting doubt on scheduled MY2026 implementation and potentially adding to global EV sales headwinds241017_Negative for renewables, supportive natural gas and coal – Supreme Court still likely to shred Biden’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) next year despite declining to issue an emergency stay this week241014_Two forthcoming SCOTUS decisions are likely to be favorable for US gas infrastructure developers but wouldn’t directly benefit Rio Grande LNG (RGLNG)241014_GOS Weekly Calendar241011_EPS Weekly Bullets241010_Supreme Court likely (60_ odds) to restrict the ability of groups to sue to invalidate agency permitting decisions, which would benefit nat gas and LNG infrastructure buildout, among other industries241010_SCOTUS likely (75_ odds) to limit the scope of National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) reviews, streamlining the permitting process and reducing the basis for environmental legal challenges241010_70_ odds that a unified Republican government would curtail or repeal the US commercial electric vehicle credit due to high costs and next year’s ~$5T debt bomb241007_Odds and Consequences of the Outcomes of the 2024 Elections241007_GOS Weekly Calendar241004_EPS Weekly Bullets241003_The European Commission’s (EC) proposal to delay implementation of its deforestation regulation by one year could be a cautionary flag for anyone betting on policy-driven EV mandates and peak oil demand2409_EPS Monthly Review - September 2024 September 2024 240930_GOS Weekly Calendar240927_Harris' support for permitting reform lends upside risk to our odds that Congress will pass the Manchin-Barasso bill in the lame duck (40_ odds) or in 2025-26 (60_ odds) should she win in November240927_EPS Weekly Bullets240925_Maintaining just 25_ odds of a prolonged strike that disrupts oil and at East Coast and Gulf ports240923_GOS Weekly Calendar240920_EPS Weekly Bullets240918_Election Update Trump Remains Slight Favorite (55_), Republican Senate a Heavy Favorite (75_), House Likely to Follow Presidency240917_FERC’s environmental review schedule for Rio Grande LNG (RGLNG) indicates that work will likely stop until November 2025 at earliest240916_GOS Weekly Calendar240913_EPS Weekly Bullets240912_Partisan House Republican proposal adds downside risk to chances of permitting reform passage this year (20_ pre-election, 40_ in lame duck)240912_Energy and Climate Policy Impacts of Austria's Election — Backgrounder240909_GOS Weekly Calendar240906_EPS Weekly Bullets240905_75_ odds Washington prevents a catastrophic shutdown of Gulf of Mexico (GoM) production on December 20240902_GOS Weekly Calendar2408_EPS Monthly Review - August 2024 August 2024 240830_EPS Weekly Bullets240826_GOS Weekly Calendar240823_EPS Weekly Bullets240822_Sen. Maj. Leader Schumer (D-NY) indicates Dems will prioritize climate legislation if they control Congress and the White House next year240821_Trump still very likely (75_ odds) to limit eligibility for Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) EV credits if reelected, despite a softened tone240820_Low, but Significant, Odds (35_) Rio Grande LNG Can Continue Construction While FERC Fixes Permitting Deficiencies240819_GOS Weekly Calendar240816_Pending federal court decision likely to invalidate Biden investing rule (60_ odds) could also limit a second Trump administration’s ability to undermine environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing240816_EPS Weekly Bullets240815_Low risk (for now) but potentially high impact on energy commodities – 25_ odds of a prolonged port strike starting September 30 that disrupts energy flows240813_Walz Would Aid Harris in Passing Permitting Reform and Saving IRA Subsidies While Preserving Room for Walk-Back on EVs as Politics Dictate240812_GOS Weekly Calendar240809_EPS Weekly Bullets240806_Trump 2.0 Tariffs How and When Backgrounder240806_DC Circuit Court of Appeals Decision Will Delay Rio Grande LNG Construction by at Least Six Months and Halt Texas LNG Progress Towards FID240805_GOS Weekly Calendar240802_EPS Weekly Bullets240801_DC Circuit invalidating Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) permit on inadequate market need cements challenges to building fossil fuel infrastructure in blue states with climate laws240801_Bearish biofuels, RINs – DC Circuit puts Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) small refiner exemptions (SREs) back on the table2407_EPS Monthly Review - July 2024
