XOMGRSCONTENT — Rapidan Energy Group

RAPIDAN GEOPOLITICAL RISK SERVICE CONTENT

October 2024

241024_GRS Weekly Bullets

241023_The View From Beijing

241021_GOS Weekly Calendar

241019_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of October 19

241017_GRS Weekly Bullets

241016_Downplay crude bullish speculation that Israel may have used covert operations to strike Iranian oil and nuclear infrastructure

241014_Jerusalem will likely wait until a US-supplied THAAD system is operational in Israel before retaliating against Iran, but we expect that will happen in days, not weeks

241012_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of October 12

241010_GRS Weekly Bullets

241009_EIA’s Iraqi crude production assessment for September spotlights egregious cheating so far this year, complicating a likely showdown with OPEC Plus leadership this month on compliance with voluntary targets

241008_Odds and Geopolitical Consequences of the Outcomes of the 2024 Elections

241007_GOS Weekly Calendar

241005_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of October 5

241003_GRS Weekly Bullets

241002_Updated estimate of oil and gas production and flows from the war threatened Arabian Gulf

241002_Reaffirming Our 30_ Odds of Material Near-Term Middle East Energy Disruptions

241001_Expect a Disproportionate Israeli Response to Any Iranian Attack, But Odds of Energy Disruptions Are 30_

September 2024

240930_GOS Weekly Calendar

240929_Iran and Allies Are Cowed and Unlikely (70_ Odds) to Trigger Near-Term Energy Disruptions, But Markets Remain Complacent on Geopolitical Risk

240928_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of September 28

240926_Israeli ground operations in Lebanon are increasingly likely, but regional escalation and oil disruption risk remain low, and any crude price premium should dissipate quickly

240925_Libyan stakeholders are confident that an agreement to resolve the Central Bank crisis is imminent and would quickly restore ~0.7 mbd of disrupted crude production

240923_GOS Weekly Calendar

240921_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of September 21

240919_GRS Weekly Bullets

240916_Sharp upward revision risk to our 40_ odds of an Israel-Hezbollah ground war as consensus in Israel increasingly favors a ramp-up of operations in southern Lebanon

240916_GOS Weekly Calendar

240914_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of September 14

240913_The View From Beijing

240912_GRS Weekly Bullets

240911_Libya update — Downside risk to our 60% odds of an imminent deal that restores ~0.8 mb_d of output by mid-September

240909_GOS Weekly Calendar

240907_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of September 7

240907_Iraq to Cut Production by ~0.1 mb d Under Pressure From OPEC Plus and Will Look to Paper Over the Remaining 0.3 mb d Needed for Full Compliance

240906_Imminent crude bullish risk — Militias aligned with Central Bank of Libya (CBL) Governor Kabir plan to launch an operation in Tripoli that risks delaying a reopening of the oil terminals

240905_GRS Weekly Bullets

240904_LIVE BRIEFING_GOS_and_GRS

240903_UN reaches tentative framework agreement with Libyan stakeholders, shifting momentum toward a near-term deal (60% odds) that would quickly restore Libyan output to 1.1-1.2 mb_d and exports to ~0.9 mb_d

240902_GOS Weekly Calendar

240901_Libyan NOC restores some production from eastern oil fields to meet domestic consumption, but 0.8-0.9 mb_d of production shut-ins will continue to disrupt exports for several weeks

August 2024

Geopolitical Risk Outlook (Slides) – August 2024

Geopolitical Risk Outlook – August 2024

240831_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of August 31

240830_The View From Beijing

240829_GRS Weekly Bullets

240827_Libyan National Army (LNA) has ordered a production shutdown at all fields under its control, raising the potential outage – likely to last weeks – as high as 1.0 mb_d (from up to 0.9 mb_d previously)

240827_A Harris Administration Would Consider Issuing Oil Waivers for Iran in Exchange for Nuclear Concessions

240826_Our latest on Libya outages – 0.7-0.9 mbd of Libyan production will likely go offline by the end of the week, with another 0.2 mbd still at risk

240826_GOS Weekly Calendar

240825_Crude bullish — A Libya oil blockade disrupting up to 0.6 mb_d appears to be imminent

240824_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics - Week of May 25

240824_Libya is on a sharp upgrade watch as eastern oil tribes may threaten to block up to 0.6 mb_d of Oil Crescent output as early as this weekend

240822_GRS Weekly Bullets

240821_Growing political turmoil in Libya – 35% odds of an oil blockade that disrupts up to 0.7 mb_d

240820_Iran Balks at Another Direct Attack Against Israel – Raising Our Odds Tehran Opts for Limited Retaliation From 65_ to 75_

240819_GOS Weekly Calendar

240817_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of August 17

240816_Libyan Power Struggle – 35_ Odds Military Clashes Could Sever 0.2 mbd of Crude Production, Disrupt Natural Gas Exports to Italy

240815_GRS Weekly Bullets

240812_GOS Weekly Calendar

240810_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of August 10

240809_Ukraine likely to ramp up attacks on Russian refineries in the coming weeks in effort to exacerbate seasonal market tightness in Russia

240808_GRS Weekly Bullets

240807_Fade today’s uptick in TTF on fighting at the Ukraine-Russia border near Sudzha – Ukraine has no strategic interest in a prolonged battle for control of the area

240805_GOS Weekly Calendar

240804_Near-term crude bullish disruption risk — Libya’s Sharara field remains online, but if negotiations between Spain and the Libyan National Army (LNA) fail, a multi-week outage at the 0.3 mb_d field is likely

240803_Quick Takes on Oil and Geopolitics — Week of August 3

240802_GRS Weekly Bullets

240801_Bracing for Iran’s Retaliation – Reaffirming Our 65_ Odds of a Non-Escalatory Response With No Oil and Gas Disruptions